Probabilities of Guessing at Multiple Choice Questions

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In a multiple choice question paper with four options, getting the answer right with the first guess (that is, if we don't know the answer) has a probability of 14. What are are the probabilities for getting the correct answer on the second, third or fourth guesses?



The probability of getting it right on the first guess is ¼ as already stated. On second guess it's 34×13=14 so the same. For the third guess, 34×23×12=14 so same again and the forth isn't a guess as it's the last one remaining with a probability of, you guessed it, 14.

So guessing wrong doesn't improve your chance of guessing right at any point.


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